
-
尊 發達公司副總
-
來源:財經刊物
發佈於 2013-05-25 11:00
國際市場
本帖最後由 尊 於 13-09-15 20:11 編輯
1117031
發布5月24日(星期五)來自Google翻譯如下...
美聯儲回購前端加載國債供應,等待未來一周將專注於國債價格。市場情緒頭提前一周高層次的恐懼來自幾乎所有類型的位置,它渴望/短褲,多頭/空頭,機構/零售或快錢。這是難怪怕是在經過大幅波動在全球固定收益和股票以及貨幣市場。從理論上講,在未來一周的事件是看好國債,包括略低企業發行。大約$ 15億到$ 20十億新的投資級企業債券發行,預計下週發行後,本週24.6十億美元超過估計為$ 20億美元。發行人已被普遍利用的還是美國的超低利率環境,以借美元計價的基金,而需求仍然貪婪的其中屈服飢餓的人群,債券投資者。
*美國和英國的貿易商有一隻腳出了門週五提前為兩個中心一個長週末,渴望休息了一個星期後,在股票,債券,商品和外匯的劇烈波動。下週被看作主要是數據真空,很少有真正推動市場也許除了週五公佈的美國個人收入和支出以及MNI芝加哥報告發布。在央行方面,加拿大央行(看到隔夜目標利率在1.0%不變)和中央銀行做:巴西(SELIC利率目前在7.50%,上調0.25個基點),決定是不大可能攪動。更大的市場驅動力方面的“大要加油”會在接下來的一周,將公佈美國非農就業,以及歐洲央行和英國央行將召開貨幣政策會議。這些事件之前,市場將繼續眼部日本股票和債券的動作。
*每週幾次,亞利桑那州共和黨參議員約翰·麥凱恩在參議院共和黨人是否應配合召開的民主黨眾議院參議院會議委員會起草一份妥協財年在看似平凡的問題與共和黨人和作戰2014年預算的決議。眾議院和參議院通過非常不同的2014財年預算決議在三月和經常預算下的過程中,眾議院,參議院會議委員會將進行組裝,以起草一份妥協的2014財年預算的決議。然而,眾議院共和黨領袖反對召開本次會議的一些程序上的原因。最重要的是從他們的角度來看,如果眾議院參議院預算會議開始,但沒有達到立法20天結束,民主黨可以與預算有關的議案,大概會尋求難堪共和黨人迫使眾議院重複投票。
*美國國債的收益率一直在上升,從他們的歷史最低水平,凱萬資產管理固定收益首席投資官克里希納Memani認為,當10年期國債收益率接近2.25%,他預計到2013年底,它可能是一個“良好的貿易。“ 然而,從投資的角度來看,即使是那些水平不提供太大的價值,使信貸產品的地方,與Memani利於高級浮動利率貸款。隨著利率的上升,從時間的角度來看,“本能”是持續時間短,他告訴MNI,但它仍可能還為時過早,“鑑於利率不會突破2.25%,今年以來,在他的觀點。“所以,我們是接近中性的方面為我們的各種組合,根據基準時間,”他說,雖然“只要我們有靈活性,我們可能較短,而不是更長。”
*值的耐用品新訂單增長3.3%,在4月,反彈向上修訂前一個月下降5.9%,由商務部週五公佈的數據顯示。運輸訂單增長8.1%,汽車及零部件訂單和籃板在國防和非國防飛機訂單比上月下降後的額外收益。扣除運輸的訂單總額同比增長1.3%,與收益在每nontransportation類。訂單總額分別同比增長2.1%,扣除國防資本不錯的31.3%反彈,由於國防飛機訂單的反彈在很大程度上。這些數據表明,第二季度的需求開始了一個更高的注意,但在2月和3月的跌幅,4月份的水平仍然是軟的,相比第一季度的平均水平。非國防資本品訂單增長3.3%,當月,仍漲1.2%,在民用飛機訂單被排除時,23.2%的漲幅。
*由於投資者都在思考尖細量化寬鬆政策將是最脆弱的資產類別,浮動利率產品出現在固定收益以明顯優勢勝出,根據上週五公佈的數據由5月22日結束的一周,EPFR Global的。“進入QE 5月的第三個星期是明確的簡寫量化寬鬆政策,燃料推動一些基準股票指數的多年高點,在當前季度基金數據提供商表示:”週五在其報告中的一周截至5月22日。“然而,到了結束的一周,一些投資者想知道的縮寫,可伴有”快速逃離“在未來幾週內,隨著市場消化的新鮮信號從美國聯邦儲備委員會,它是貨幣政策正常化盡快“它補充說,美國經濟強大到足以應付。
*四月頒布的美國建築許可被向下修正至同比增長12.9%,同比增長到1005000單位青蒿率,商務部人口普查局說,星期五。簽發許可證原先公佈的14.3%到101.7萬台率。
*美國國債價格在很短的週五為美國陣亡將士紀念日長週末假期,市場看到雙向流動主要是輕度更高結束。
*移JGB和快節奏的波動,美元兌日圓本週美國國債收益率組合。美元兌日圓交易於Y101.05在長週末之前,本週的範圍Y100.83(週四低點)Y103.74(週三高點)偏低。雖然市場參與者仍然顯得較高水平(Y105,Y110及以後)在今年晚些時候,沒有人會驚訝地看到一個子Y100舉動,特別是如果日經225指數(週五收於14,612.45)看到一條新的腿下。歐元兌美元收在1.2920美元,在一周的1.2817美元(週一低點),1.2998美元(週三高點)之間的中間。本週兩次,對有拱形它的55日移動平均線(1.2885美元星期五),並延長約10點,然後虎頭蛇尾。
*在週五美股止道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲8.6報15,303.10點,不遠處從年初一個tumulturous星期的水平。S&P 500指數微跌0.91至1,649.60。納斯達克綜合指數幾乎是一動不動,跌0.27 3,459.14
- MNI華盛頓局,電話:+1 202-371-2121,電子郵件:dgulino@mni-news.com
1117032
Friday's Top Stories in the United States
By Market News International posted Fri, 24 May 2013 16:10
* The week ahead will focus on the noshing on Treasury prices as they rest at the lower end of the range while month-end, Fed buybacks and front-end loaded Treasury supply awaits. Market emotion heads into the week ahead at high levels with fear emanating from almost every type of position, be it longs/shorts, bulls/bears, institutional/retail or fast money. It is no wonder fear is in the markets after a sharp swings in global fixed income and equities as well as currencies. In theory, the events in the week ahead are bullish for Treasuries, including slightly lower corporate issuance. Around $15 billion to $20 billion of new investment-grade corporate bond offerings are expected next week, after issuance this week of $24.6 billion surpassed estimates for $20 billion. Issuers have been generally taking advantage of the still ultra-low U.S. interest rate environment to borrow dollar-denominated funds, while demand remains voracious among a yield-starved crowd of bond investors.
* U.S. and UK traders had one foot out the door Friday ahead of a long weekend for both centers, and were eager to rest up after a week of wild swings in stocks, bonds, commodities and FX. Next week is viewed as largely a data vacuum, with little to truly drive markets except perhaps next Friday's U.S. releases of personal income and spending and MNI's Chicago Report. On the central bank front, Bank of Canada (overnight target rate seen unchanged at 1.0%) and Banco Central do Brazil (Selic rate, currently at 7.50%, could be raised 0.25 basis points) decisions are unlikely to roil either. The "big kahunas" in terms of larger market drivers will come the following week, when U.S. non-farm payrolls will be released, and the European Central Bank and Bank of England will hold monetary policy meetings. Ahead of these events, the market will continue to eye Japanese stock and bond moves.
* On several occasions this week, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona traveled to the Senate floor and battled with fellow Republicans on the seemingly mundane issue of whether Republicans should cooperate with Democrats in convening a House-Senate conference committee to draft a compromise fiscal year 2014 budget resolution. The House and Senate passed very different fiscal year 2014 budget resolutions in March and under the regular budget process a House-Senate conference committee would be assembled to draft a compromise FY 2014 budget resolution. However, House Republican leaders have opposed convening this conference for several procedural reasons. Most importantly from their perspective, if the House-Senate budget conference begins but does not reach a conclusion in 20 legislative days, Democrats can force the House to vote repeatedly on budget related motions that would presumably seek to embarrass Republicans.
* U.S. Treasury yields have been rising from their historically low levels and OppenheimerFunds Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Krishna Memani believes that when the 10-year yield approaches 2.25%, where he expects it to be by the end of 2013, it could be a "good trade." From an investment standpoint, however, even those levels don't offer much value,leaving credit products the place to be,